Now that the NFL season and Super Bowl are over it’s time to move onto another sport for gambling amusement. Usually from the NBA All Star game through the summer I like to bet on the NBA a little.
Much like other sports I bet with trends, recent history and always keep home court in mind. I’m not great at math, so I don’t run statistical probability. Recently the folks at Wizard of Odds had an article on just that. I’ll share the highlights without the actual statistics.
Betting against the spread.
..if you must bet basketball blindly, your best bet is to bet on visiting underdogs, at a house advantage of 3.19%, when laying 110. 72% of the time the home team is favored, so there should be no shortage of opportunities to bet the other way.
This goes against traditional thought that the home team is always a good bet. I find this a little surprising, but for blind statistical advice I take this to heart. This makes statistical sense when looking at the numbers. I learned a little something here.
Over/Under bets
There is no significant difference between betting overs and unders in the NBA…The small difference between overs and unders is statistically negligible.
This makes 100% sense to me and is why I will usually stay away from over/under bets. I only bet over/under if there is a specific match up that trends one way or the other. I usually look at 5 recent home scores for the home team and 5 recent road scores for the road team. If both sides are 80% one direction I’ll usually place a wager.
The article has much much more, but I don’t buy points or play teasers. I do enjoy playing parlays and I recommend you check Wizard of Odds for statistical analysis. The information provided doesn’t really do anything for me.
