Betting on NBA

Now that the NFL season and Super Bowl are over it’s time to move onto another sport for gambling amusement.  Usually from the NBA All Star game through the summer I like to bet on the NBA a little.

Much like other sports I bet with trends, recent history and always keep home court in mind.  I’m not great at math, so I don’t run statistical probability.  Recently the folks at Wizard of Odds had an article on just that.  I’ll share the highlights without the actual statistics.

Betting against the spread.

..if you must bet basketball blindly, your best bet is to bet on visiting underdogs, at a house advantage of 3.19%, when laying 110. 72% of the time the home team is favored, so there should be no shortage of opportunities to bet the other way.

This goes against traditional thought that the home team is always a good bet. I find this a little surprising, but for blind statistical advice I take this to heart.  This makes statistical sense when looking at the numbers.  I learned a little something here.

Over/Under bets

There is no significant difference between betting overs and unders in the NBA…The small difference between overs and unders is statistically negligible.

This makes 100% sense to me and is why I will usually stay away from over/under bets.  I only bet over/under if there is a specific match up that trends one way or the other.  I usually look at 5 recent home scores for the home team and 5 recent road scores for the road team.  If both sides are 80% one direction I’ll usually place a wager.

The article has much much more, but I don’t buy points or play teasers.  I do enjoy playing parlays and I recommend you check Wizard of Odds for statistical analysis.  The information provided doesn’t really do anything for me.

Is Harrah’s Going Bankrupt?

Vegas Tripping made this post earlier today and it got me thinking….

There are a lot of signs pointing to the possibility of Harrah’ Entertainment filing for bankruptcy reorganization in the very near future.

Not but a week ago, Harrah’s applied to draw down the final $740M from their revolving credit line, which many say is a last minute ‘use it or lose it’ hoarding/harvesting of available cash before the bankruptcy filing begins.

So lets assume Harrah’s goes bankrupt. What then?

Can a company of the size of Harrah’s function in this economic atmosphere? How long will bankruptcy proceedings ham string the company? Will they be required to divest themselves of assets as part of a bondholder agreement? Will this affect the guest experience via operational cut backs or ratcheting up the hold on the casino floor? Will Harrah’s become the new Trump – riding the decade long debt load merry-go-round till it slowly grinds to a halt?

Perhaps, most importantly… will our Total Rewards points be considered “debt” and vanish in the agreement?

I’ve been focusing all of my Atlantic City play to Harrah’s properties because of their many locations.  At this point I can get rooms anywhere and anytime.  This may change things on my next trip to Las Vegas. It may change where I play big.

Video Poker at Harrah’s properties in Vegas have shit pay outs, so I may keep my Caesars Palace video poker gambling very low and save money for a 9/6 JOB casino.  I’ll have to keep this in mind for my upcoming research.  For now, I’ll have to consider the possibilities.

Thanks, again, to Vegas Tripping for the thought provoking article.

Slot Machine Payouts – February 15, 2009

I find slot machine payouts very interesting and my slot play will sometimes fluctuate depending on the payout number.  Below are the places I gamble most.  You can see complete information here.

Atlantic City
Borgata        91.8
Trump Taj Mahal 91.4 *
Resorts     91.3 *
AC Hilton     91.3 *
Trump Marina     91.3 *

Connecticut
Foxwoods    92.1
Mohegan Sun    91.4

Nevada
Downtown Vegas     92.9 *
North Las Vegas    92.8*
Las Vegas Strip 92.8 *

Note: North Las Vegas: Santa Fe, Fiesta. Boulder Strip: Sam’s Town. Downtown Vegas: Fremont St casinos. Balance of County includes Orleans, AZ Charlies and casinos in Primm.

The only casino I’ll be playing any time soon will be the Borgata in Atlantic City next month.  They have the highest payouts in Atlantic City.  I’ll dig a little more into the NJ gaming commission reports to see which denominations actually pay out the best.  Of course I’ll post my findings here.